ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Reliability Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis of Concrete Gravity Dams by Considering Uncertainty in Reservoir Water Levels and Dam Body Materials
 
More details
Hide details
1
Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Ramsar, Iran
 
2
Faculty of Civil and Surveying Engineering, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran
 
 
Online publication date: 2020-04-18
 
 
Publication date: 2020-03-01
 
 
Civil and Environmental Engineering Reports 2020;30(1):1-17
 
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
An elaborate safety assessment of the Pine Flat (PF) concrete gravity dam (CGD) has been conducted in this paper. Structural analysis was performed by taking into account the uncertainties in the physical and mechanical properties of the dam body materials and the reservoir water level. The coefficient of variation of 5 and 10 percent and the Gaussian distribution (GAUS) are assigned to random variables (RVs). Sensitivity analysis (SA) of the RVs is done, and important parameters introduced. SA is done to identify the most influential RVs on the structural response. Also, the modulus of elasticity of concrete is the most effective parameter in response to horizontal deformation of the dam crest. The concrete density and US hydrostatic pressure height are the most effective parameters, and the Poisson's ratio is the insignificant parameter on the dam response. To be confident in the safety of the dam body under usual loading, including the dam weight and the upstream (US) hydrostatic pressure, the reliability index (RI) has been obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. The RI for the coefficients of variation of 5 and 10 percent were obtained at 4.38 and 2.47, respectively. If the dispersion of RVs is high, then the dam will be at risk of failure.
 
REFERENCES (34)
1.
Aghajanzadeh, SM and Ghaemian, M 2013. Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis of Concrete Gravity Dam Considering Elastoplastic Constitutive Model for Foundation. Scientia Iranica, 20(6), 1676-1684.
 
2.
Alembagheri, M and Seyedkazemi, M 2015. Seismic performance sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of gravity dams. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, 44(1), 41-58.
 
3.
Altarejos-García, L, Escuder-Bueno, I, Serrano-Lombillo, A and de Membrillera-Ortuño, MG 2012. Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis. Structural safety, 36, 1-13.
 
4.
Ang, AHS, Tang, WH 1990. Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design: Volume 2 – Decision, Risk and Reliability, John Wiley, N.Y., USA.
 
5.
Aryai, V, Baji, H, Mahmoodian, M and Li, C 2020. Time-Dependent Finite Element Reliability Assessment of Cast-Iron Water Pipes Subjected to Spatio-Temporal Correlated Corrosion Process, Reliability Engineering and System Safety.
 
6.
Ayyub, BM, Chao, RJ, Patev, RC and Leggett, MA 1998. Reliability and Stability Assessment of Concrete Gravity Structures (RCSLlDE): Theoretical Manual (No. WES/TR/ITL-96-6). Army engineer waterways experiment station vicksburg ms information technology lab.
 
7.
Başbolat, EE, Bayraktar, A and Başağa, HB 2018. Seismic reliability analysis of high concrete arch dams under near-fault effect, 4 th International Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, TURKEY.
 
8.
Beser, MRA 2005. Study on the reliability—Based safety analysis of concrete gravity dams (Doctoral dissertation, Thesis). Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences of Middle East Technical University.
 
9.
Chen, H, Xu, W, Wu, Q, Liu, Z and Wang, S 2014. Reliability analysis of arch dam subjected to seismic loads. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 39(11), 7609-7619.
 
10.
Fan, SL, Chen, JY, Li, J and Wu-qiang, F 2010. Roller compacted concrete gravity dam’s reliability analysis based on response surface approach. In Earth and Space 2010: Engineering, Science, Construction, and Operations in Challenging Environments (pp. 3355-3367).
 
11.
Ganji, HT, Alembagheri, M and Khaneghahi, MH 2019. Evaluation of seismic reliability of gravity dam-reservoir inhomogeneous foundation coupled system. Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 13(3), 701-715.
 
12.
Hariri-Ardebili, MA, Xu, J 2019. Efficient seismic reliability analysis of large-scale coupled systems including epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 116, 761-773.
 
13.
Hariri-Ardebili, MA 2018. Risk, Reliability, Resilience (R3) and beyond in dam engineering: A state-of-the-art review. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 31, 806-831.
 
14.
Johansson, F, Westberg Wilde, M and Altarejos García, L 2017. Theme DRisk Analysis–assessment of reliability for concrete dams. In 14th International Benchmark Workshop on Numerical Analysis of Dams, Stockholm.
 
15.
Li, T, Li, D, Feng, S and Xiao, F 2010. Analysis of Crack Reliability for Gravity Dams Based on FEM and Response Surface Method. In Earth and Space 2010: Engineering, Science, Construction, and Operations in Challenging Environments (pp. 329-337).
 
16.
Lu, X and Tian, B 2009. Seismic dynamic reliability analysis of gravity dam. In Computational Structural Engineering (pp. 331-340). Springer, Dordrecht.
 
17.
Lupoi, A and Callari, C 2012. A probabilistic method for the seismic assessment of existing concrete gravity dams. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, 8(10), 985-998.
 
18.
MiarNaeimi, F, Azizyan, G and Akbari, G 2016. Performance Evaluation of Monte Carlo Simulation and FORM Method to Calculate Probability of Failure for Concrete Gravity Dams in Sliding Failure Mode under Static Loading. Modares Civil Engineering Journal, 16(3), 227-240.
 
19.
Nariman, NA, Lahmer, T and Karampour, P 2019. Uncertainty quantification of stability and damage detection parameters of coupled hydrodynamic-ground motion in concrete gravity dams. Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 13(2), 303-323.
 
20.
Pires, K, Beck, A, Bittencourt, T and Futai, M 2019. Reliability analysis of built concrete dam. Revista IBRACON de Estruturas e Materiais, 12(3), 551-579.
 
21.
Saouma, V 2006. Reliability-based nonlinear fracture mechanics analysis of a concrete dam; a simplified approach. Water and Energy Abstracts, 16(1).
 
22.
Chakkarapani, V 2004. Analysis of stress singularity of adhered contacts in MEMS (Doctoral dissertation, Texas Tech University).
 
23.
Pouraminian, M and Ghaemian, M 2015. Shape optimization of concrete open-spandrel arch bridges. Građevinar, 67(12), 1177-1185.
 
24.
Pouraminian, M and Pourbakhshian, S 2019. Multi-criteria shape optimization of open-spandrel concrete arch bridges: Pareto front development and decision-making. World Journal of Engineering.
 
25.
Pouraminian, M, Pourbakhshian, S, Farsangi, EN and Fotoukian, R 2019. Probabilistic Safety Evaluation of a Concrete arch dam Based on Finite Element Modeling and A Reliability LR Approach. Civil and Environmental Engineering Reports, 29(4), 62-78.
 
26.
Pouraminian, M, Pourbakhshian, S and Hosseini, M 2019. Reliability analysis of Pole Kheshti historical arch bridge under service loads using SFEM. Journal of Building Pathology and Rehabilitation, 4(1), 21.
 
27.
Pouraminian, M, Ghaemian, M 2017. Multi-criteria optimization of concrete arch dams. Scientia Iranica. Transaction A, Civil Engineering, 24(4), 1810.
 
28.
Pourbakhshian, S, Ghaemain, M 2016. Shape optimization of arch dams using sensitivity analysis. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 20(5), 1966-1976.
 
29.
Reh, S, Beley, JD, Mukherjee, S and Khor, EH 2006. Probabilistic finite element analysis using ANSYS. Structural Safety, 28(1-2), pp.17-43.
 
30.
Schlegel, R, Goldgruber, M, Mrozek, M and Fleischer, H 2018. Investigation of the Reliability of Dams with Stochastic Finite Element Methods. In Proceedings of the 14th ICOLD International Benchmark Workshop on Numerical Analysis of Dams.
 
31.
Sivakumar Babu, GL and Srivastava, A 2010. Reliability analysis of earth dams. Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering, 136(7), 995-998.
 
32.
Xin, C and Chongshi, G 2016. Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using the credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model. SpringerPlus, 5(1), 778.
 
33.
Yanmaz, AM and Beşer, MR 2005. On the Reliability-Based Safety Analysis of the Porsuk Dam. Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 29(5), 309-320.
 
34.
Westberg, M 2010. Reliability-based assessment of concrete dam stability (Doctoral dissertation, Division of Structural Engineering, Lund University).
 
eISSN:2450-8594
ISSN:2080-5187
Journals System - logo
Scroll to top